Tuesday, May 26, 2009


Greetings good citizen,

Um, ‘chasing’ short-term market moves is a ‘fool’s errand’. As of 2:00 PM the Dow has tacked on over 200 points based on, if you can believe it, rising consumer confidence!

This is nearly as silly as the last 200 point bounced based on the ‘rising confidence’ of homebuilders…which was proven unfounded less than 24 hours later!

Once again we can only shake our heads in disbelief and wonder who they are asking?

This is akin to polls that indicated President Bush enjoyed a 60% popularity rating back when everything was turning to shit…who did they poll, the members of the Republican national committee?

Which is to ask what ‘zip codes’ were polled to dredge up this rise in consumer confidence? Or is this a ‘con’ too?

Perhaps the proof is in the pudding, as you know the stock market is the biggest ‘con’ of all!

What I found striking about this article (which has since been amended) is how the NY Times is cited as the ‘source’ of the article! (In fairness, the ‘source article’ retains its Reuters header…)

Markets Rise on Consumer Optimism
[snip: let’s cut to the chase!]

The more buoyant mood among consumers echoed recent surveys of home builders, manufacturers and service-sector businesses, which have reflected a retreat from historic levels of pessimism.

“Anything that measures sentiment has improved,” an economist at Deutsche Bank, Joseph LaVorgna, said. “We’re not seeing it in the hard data, but seeing it in the sentiment. But you can’t spend confidence.”

So I ask you good citizen, is consumer confidence ‘really’ up or are the results reported today ‘positive’ because the ‘researchers’ only polled the residents of the mental institutions that care for people who have lost touch with reality?

Mind you, there isn’t a shred of evidence to support this claim yet the idiot investors added more than 200 points to the Dow today!

So we are left once again to ponder the ‘significance’ as well as the ‘wisdom’ of paying any attention at all to the stock markets (much less actually commit money to them!)
If you still have a 401k, get the fuck out now!

Shifting gears here, I encountered a (for this particular writer) ‘brief’ article from the inestimable Henry C.K. Liu.

Once again, Henry sheds more light on the increasingly murky financial morass…

Liquidity drowns meaning of 'inflation'
By Henry C K Liu

The conventional terms of inflation and deflation are no longer adequate for describing the overall monetary effect of excess liquidity recently released by the US Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, to deal with the year-long credit crunch.

This is because the approach adopted by the Treasury and the Fed to deal with a financial crisis of unsustainable debt created by excess liquidity is to inject more liquidity in the form of both new public debt and newly created money into the economy and to channel it to debt-laden institutions to reflate a burst debt-driven asset price bubble.

The Treasury does not have any power to create new money. It has to borrow from the credit market, thus shifting private debt into public debt. The Fed has the authority to create new money. Unfortunately, the Fed's new money has not been going to consumers in the form of full employment with rising wages to restore fallen demand, but instead is going only to debt-infested distressed institutions to allow them to deleverage from toxic debt. Thus deflation in the equity market (falling share prices) has been cushioned by newly issued money, while aggregate wage income continues to fall to further reduce aggregate demand.

Falling demand deflates commodity prices, but not enough to restore demand because aggregate wages are falling faster. When financial institutions deleverage with free money from the central bank, the creditors receive the money while the Fed assumes the toxic liability by expanding its balance sheet. Deleverage reduces financial costs while increasing cash flow to allow zombie financial institutions to return to nominal profitability with unearned income and while laying off workers to cut operational cost. Thus we have financial profit inflation with price deflation in a shrinking economy.

What we will have going forward is not Weimar Republic-type price hyperinflation, but a financial profit inflation in which zombie financial institutions turn nominally profitable in a collapsing economy. The danger is that this unearned nominal financial profit is mistaken as a sign of economic recovery, inducing the public to invest what remaining wealth they still hold, only to lose more of it at the next market meltdown, which will come when the profit bubble bursts.

Hyperinflation is fatal because hedging against it causes market failures to destroy wealth. Normally, when markets are functioning, unhedged inflation favors debtors by reducing the value of liabilities they owe to creditors. Instead of destroying wealth, unhedged inflation merely transfers wealth from creditors to debtors. But with government intervention in the financial market, both debtors and creditors are the taxpayers. In such circumstances, even moderate inflation destroys wealth because there are no winning parties.

Debt denominated in fiat currency is borrowed wealth to be repaid later with wealth stored in money protected by monetary policy. Bank deleveraging with Fed new money cancels private debt at full face value with money that has not been earned by anyone, that is with no stored wealth. That kind of money is toxic in that the more valuable it is (with increased purchasing power to buy more as prices deflate), the more it degrades wealth because no wealth has been put into the money to be stored, thus negating the fundamental prerequisite of money as a storer of value.

This is not demand destruction because decline in demand is temporarily slowed by the new money. Rather, it is money destruction as a restorer of value while it produces a misleading and confusing effect on aggregate demand.

Thinking about the value of any real asset (gold, oil, and so forth) in money (dollar) terms is misleading. The correct way is to think about the value of the money (dollars) in asset (gold, oil) terms, because assets (gold, oil, and so on) are wealth. The Fed can create money, but it cannot create wealth.

Central bankers are savvy enough to know that while they can create money, they cannot create wealth. To bind money to wealth, central bankers must fight inflation as if it were a financial plague. But the first law of growth economics states that to create wealth through growth, some inflation needs to be tolerated.

The solution then is to make the working poor pay for the pain of inflation by giving the rich a bigger share of the monetized wealth created via inflation, so that the loss of purchasing power from inflation is mostly borne by the low-wage working poor and not by the owners of capital, the monetary value of which is protected from inflation through low wages. Thus the working poor loses in both boom times and bust times.

Inflation is deemed benign by monetarism as long as wages rise at a slower pace than asset prices. The monetarist iron law of wages worked in the industrial age, with the resultant excess capacity absorbed by conspicuous consumption of the moneyed class, although it eventually heralded in the age of revolutions. But the iron law of wages no longer works in the post-industrial age in which growth can only come from mass demand management because overcapacity has grown beyond the ability of conspicuous consumption of a few to absorb in an economic democracy.

That has been the basic problem of the global economy for the past three decades. Low wages even in boom times have landed the world in its current sorry state of overcapacity masked by unsustainable demand created by a debt bubble that finally imploded in July 2007. The whole world is now producing goods and services made by low-wage workers who cannot afford to buy what they make except by taking on debt on which they eventually will default because their low income cannot service it.

All the stimulus spending by all governments perpetuates this dysfunctionality. There will be no recovery from this dysfunctional financial system. Only reform toward full employment with rising wages will save this severely impaired economy.

How can that be done? Simple. Make the cost of wage increases deductible from corporate income tax and make the savings from layoffs taxable as corporate income.

Um, it is indeed a ‘simple’ as well as elegant solution…likely to be as popular with our exploiter class as A Simple Plan is…not.

Left to our imagination here is what constitutes a ‘wage increase’ and what constitutes ‘lay-off’ (savings given how screwy our methods of accounting have become.)

Will employers be permitted to keep ‘lay-off savings’ off their balance sheets? Enabling them to keep inflation where it belongs, on the backs of the working poor? Would employers demand to be allowed to deduct ‘all’ wages (something they already do, as wages are a ‘business expense’?)

Sorry, it’s a little too simple for my feeble mind. Without altering basic human psychology there is too much opportunity to ‘game the system’, which is how we got where we are in the first place.

If we are to reform our system of commerce, we need to fundamentally alter the ‘incentives’ to do what we do.

Key to my proposal [A Simple Plan] is the ‘Human Anti-exploitation Law’ which forbids anyone from making money from the sweat of another’s brow.

This outlaws the ‘Master’ (business owner/paymaster) from the ‘Slave’ (those forced to labor for a wage, whether they can live on it or not.) relationship.

You will finally be able to work for yourself with all of the attendant benefits accruing to you and not some ingrate that holds your financial future by the short hairs!

Here’s something that probably gives most folks a headache, it works without collecting a single cent in taxes!

Remember that taxes were originally called ‘tribute’ and existed to fund the lifestyles of our overlords.

Now they (taxes) are used as an ‘excuse’ to fund necessary but unprofitable ventures…

Ironically, anything that is necessary is profitable all by itself.

I’ll drop it here because if I don’t this will continue for another 70 plus pages.

Thanks for letting me inside your head,


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