Thursday, July 30, 2009


Greetings good citizen,

I’m getting sick of repeating myself good citizen but they ‘did it again’ today (although I think the ‘day traders’ have wised up and started selling into the end of the day buying frenzy.) The ‘tape’ once again shows a near vertical ‘spike’ right at the very end of the trading day.

There is no known advantage to holding (decidedly crappy) positions overnight, the only thing we know for sure is the markets closed higher than they otherwise would have for the third straight session.

This naturally begs the question as to whether or not the financial numbers are being ‘politicized’ because CG is right, if the economy doesn’t improve, the Democrats are toast come the next election.

Not that this means the Republicans will enjoy a ‘walk away’ victory. The public may have a short attention span but they won’t forget who actually caused this train wreck.

Which begs a different question, if the economic results are being ‘massaged’ how is this any different from what Bush did?

The people don’t want ‘fairy tales’. They want results they can see with their own eyes and prosperity they can actually take part in! This making rich people richer shit is for the birds! Yet every move to curb the free spending on Wall Street has been blocked with almost stunning ease by these same criminals.

This isn’t how elections are won…not that there is strong evidence that proves such contests are legitimate in the first place…but one again I digress.

At issue good citizen is whether or not the economy is turning around or ‘stabilizing’ as they put it in tonight’s offering .

Fed Sees Signs That the Economy Is Stabilizing

Published: July 29, 2009

The recession is losing force in most parts of the United States, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in a snapshot of economic activity from across the country.

But the picture remains grim in other sections, with retail sales down in the Midwest, loan demand falling in New York, commercial real estate weakening and manufacturing activity stumbling in many regions.

The assessments were part of the Fed’s beige book, a regular assessment of economic conditions from 12 Fed districts nationwide. Since the spring, the various Fed districts have reported that things were still bad, but not hurtling downward at an accelerating pace.

Despite stabilizing conditions over all, few businesses or industries are girding for a rebound. Manufacturers anticipate a modest and uneven recovery. Some retailers are bracing for a long, slow recovery; the job market remains dismal and is likely to stay that way for some time.

“The weakness of labor markets has virtually eliminated upward wage pressure, and wages and compensation are steady or falling in most districts,” the Fed said.

While the broad arc of the economy tracked a similar course, this time there were a few more glints of hope. In four districts, health care companies were hiring. Information technology jobs were opening up in the Richmond and Minneapolis districts. And there were signs that New York’s labor market was stabilizing. [Huh?]

Also on Wednesday, the government reported that new orders to factories for durable goods fell sharply in June as demand for commercial aircraft and motor vehicles declined from a month earlier.

The 2.5 percent drop in manufacturers’ orders was the largest decline in five months, but economists said the picture was brighter than it might seem. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, manufacturers’ orders rose 1.1 percent for the month, a larger increase than analysts had forecast. [Excuse me? Overall orders were down 2.5% yet somehow ‘non-transportation’ orders were up 1.1%??? Sorry but that doesn’t make sense! Unless these are the same ‘economists’ that are constantly having their ‘expectations’ beat. We already know ‘down’ is ‘up’ to them…]

Economists said the numbers reflected more stability in the manufacturing sector after months of declines that came as factories shut down, cut their inventories and scaled back production as they confronted the worst economy in decades. Now, manufacturing seems to be finding its footing, economists said. [As a thirty year manufacturing professional I’m here to tell you unequivocally that manufacturing is the first sector to be hit by a downturn and the last sector to recover. That said, our manufacturing sector is now so tiny that it never ‘recovered’ from the 1991 economic downturn. Most manufactured products in this country today are ‘imported’.]

“It tells me we’re on the cusp of a very slow and gradual recovery,” said Tim Quinlan, an economic analyst for Wells Fargo. “Businesses have been in absolute lockdown all year. Everybody has been scaling back and saving money. Orders seem to be in a bottoming process.” [Naturally, nobody knows for sure how long that ‘bottoming process’ will take, seeing how most folks don’t have any money, you can be sure that this process is going to take a considerable amount of time.]

Still, new orders for all durable goods — products that last several years — were down 26.7 percent in June from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported, and shipments of goods fell 19.5 percent.

In June, there were more new orders for metals, machinery, electrical equipment and appliances. Orders for military aircraft rose by 30 percent in June from a month earlier, the Commerce Department reported. [Okay, do these people look like idiots now or do they just think we are? What they reported makes no sense but that doesn’t mean they are ‘lying’…what it means is orders for June are ‘up’ compared to May but still down (considerably), year over year.]

But declines in automotive orders, coupled with a double-digit decline in orders for commercial aircraft, weighed on the sector, demonstrating the volatility of the government’s figures on durable goods orders.

New orders for motor vehicles and parts fell 1 percent in June, reflecting turmoil caused by the bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler in addition to sagging demand for domestic automobiles. Orders for civilian aircraft plunged 38.5 percent, one month after they shot up 60 percent.

So what do you think good citizen? Is our economy ‘on the mend’ or would the report be more understandable if it were written by people whose primary language was English?

How this report ever got past an editor (never mind into the NY times) absolutely baffles me.

Like back in March, this appears to be yet another regurgitation of the popular ‘less bad’ meme pundits have been using to build consumer confidence in a pretty much ‘totaled’ economy.

If this report ‘boosts your confidence’ in either the US or the global economy then it doesn’t take much to make you happy.

Thanks for letting me inside your head,


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